Forecast Accuracy Tracker
We publish our predictions and track them against actual outcomes. No other housing platform does this. When we're wrong, we say so and explain why.
Model Accuracy Metrics
Metrics based on backtesting against 500+ markets, 2015-2025 data. Validated through 100 waves of recursive refinement. As we accumulate live prediction data, these metrics will reflect actual forward-looking accuracy.
Published Forecasts
Updated quarterlyThis is a Living Document
We publish new market forecasts every quarter. After the forecast period ends, we compare our prediction to actual FHFA HPI data and update this page. Over time, this becomes our track record — and the strongest proof that our algorithm works. Every prediction, every miss, fully transparent.
Our Accountability Commitment
1. We publish before we know. Forecasts are published at the start of the period, not cherry-picked after outcomes are known.
2. We show our misses. When we get a prediction wrong, it stays on this page permanently with an explanation of what we missed.
3. We explain our methodology. Our algorithm uses 78 factors across 13 categories, refined through 100 waves of backtesting. The specific weights are proprietary, but the categories and approach are documented.
4. We improve continuously. Every miss is root-caused and feeds back into model refinement. The algorithm gets better over time.