Forecast Accuracy Tracker
We publish our predictions and track them against actual outcomes. No other housing platform does this. When we're wrong, we say so and explain why.
Awaiting First Results
Capital Ladder launched in Q1 2026. Our first batch of 1-year market forecasts (LadderScore12) will be verifiable against actual FHFA HPI data in Q4 2026. Until then, this page will show pending forecasts. Once results arrive, every prediction — hits and misses — will be published here permanently.
Published Forecasts
Updated quarterlyThis is a Living Document
We publish new market forecasts every quarter. After the forecast period ends, we compare our prediction to actual FHFA HPI data and update this page. Over time, this becomes our track record — and the strongest proof that our algorithm works. Every prediction, every miss, fully transparent.
Our Accountability Commitment
1. We publish before we know. Forecasts are published at the start of the period, not cherry-picked after outcomes are known.
2. We show our misses. When we get a prediction wrong, it stays on this page permanently with an explanation of what we missed.
3. We explain our methodology. Our algorithm uses 50+ factors across 13 categories, refined through iterative backtesting against historical FHFA HPI data. The specific weights are proprietary, but the categories and approach are documented on our LadderScore page.
4. We improve continuously. Every miss is root-caused and feeds back into model refinement. The algorithm gets better over time.